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Live model

Evidence-first NBA forecasts, built like a research report.

Walk-forward backtests, calibrated probabilities, market benchmarking, and saved daily boards that can be audited after the fact. No touts — just logged predictions.

Open today’s slate→Benchmarks & market coverage
Current walk-forward accuracy62.8%
Postseason-aware GBM · 1,291 backtest games · Oct '25 – May '26
Accuracy62.8%Backtest games1,291Log loss0.632Brier0.221Points MAE4.74Rebounds MAE1.95Assists MAE1.43WindowOct '25 – May '26Primary modelPostseason-aware GBMAccuracy62.8%Backtest games1,291Log loss0.632Brier0.221Points MAE4.74Rebounds MAE1.95Assists MAE1.43WindowOct '25 – May '26Primary modelPostseason-aware GBM
Latest slate

May 20, 2026

79% conf
Model pick OKC
SAS logo
SAS
Away
VS
OKC
Home
OKC logo
SAS 21%79% OKC
Pregame edge after calibrationPick OKC

Primary read

Rebounds diff (5g) (+3.7%)

Rebounds diff (5g) (+3.7%)Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+3.6%)Home true shooting percentage (5g) (+1.7%)
View full schedule
Model health
Current accuracy62.8%1,291 games · today
Log loss0.632Postseason-aware GBM
Brier score0.221Lower is better
Points MAE4.74Player-prop error
Evaluation reportcurrent

Updated May 20, 6:38 AM EDT

Headline accuracy follows the active evaluation artifact.

Backtest windowOct '25 – May '26

Through May 19, 2026

Headline and rolling chart read from reports/backtest_unified_playoff_gbm.csv.

Market reportcurrent

Generated May 20, 6:38 AM EDT

Latest slate: 2026-05-20 · today

Built to read like an evaluation report, not a tout sheet.

Methodology
01

Walk-forward backtesting across the full evaluation window, never a random split.

02

Pregame-safe features only, with rolling windows excluding the current game.

03

Closing-line comparisons so performance is framed against a real market baseline.

Rolling accuracy

20-game rolling accuracy from the same postseason-aware artifact as the headline metric.

Postseason-aware GBMUpdated through May 19, 2026

Regular-season model comparison

1,214 games · Oct '25 – Apr '26 · today

Logistic66.8%
Log loss 0.605Brier 0.210
LightGBM64.3%
Log loss 0.630Brier 0.219
Ensemble66.3%
Log loss 0.622Brier 0.214

Props error snapshot

Pts4.74MAE
Reb1.95MAE
Ast1.43MAE

Recent predictions

Saved slate calls. Results settle after final scores land in the processed game feed.

20 rowsOct '25 – May '26
DateMatchupHome win %PickActualResult
May 20, 2026SAS@OKC79%OKCOKCCorrect
May 19, 2026CLE@NYK84%NYKNYKCorrect
May 18, 2026SAS@OKC70%OKCSASMiss
May 17, 2026CLE@DET78%DETCLEMiss
May 15, 2026DET@CLE74%CLEDETMiss
May 15, 2026SAS@MIN44%SASSASCorrect
May 13, 2026CLE@DET75%DETCLEMiss
May 12, 2026MIN@SAS78%SASSASCorrect
May 11, 2026DET@CLE40%DETCLEMiss
May 11, 2026OKC@LAL31%OKCOKCCorrect
May 10, 2026SAS@MIN46%SASMINMiss
May 10, 2026NYK@PHI40%NYKNYKCorrect
May 9, 2026DET@CLE45%DETCLEMiss
May 9, 2026OKC@LAL36%OKCOKCCorrect
May 8, 2026NYK@PHI52%PHINYKMiss
May 8, 2026SAS@MIN47%SASSASCorrect
May 7, 2026CLE@DET77%DETDETCorrect
May 7, 2026LAL@OKC64%OKCOKCCorrect
May 6, 2026MIN@SAS84%SASSASCorrect
May 6, 2026PHI@NYK80%NYKNYKCorrect

Surfaces