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Live model

Evidence-first NBA forecasts, built like a research report.

Walk-forward backtests, calibrated probabilities, market benchmarking, and saved daily boards that can be audited after the fact. No touts — just logged predictions.

Open today’s slate→Benchmarks & market coverage
Current walk-forward accuracy62.8%
Postseason-aware GBM · 1,305 backtest games · Oct '25 – Jun '26
Accuracy62.8%Backtest games1,305Log loss0.633Brier0.221Points MAE4.74Rebounds MAE1.95Assists MAE1.43WindowOct '25 – Jun '26Primary modelPostseason-aware GBMAccuracy62.8%Backtest games1,305Log loss0.633Brier0.221Points MAE4.74Rebounds MAE1.95Assists MAE1.43WindowOct '25 – Jun '26Primary modelPostseason-aware GBM
Model health
Current accuracy62.8%1,305 games · 11 days old
Log loss0.633Postseason-aware GBM
Brier score0.221Lower is better
Points MAE4.74Player-prop error
Evaluation reportstale

Updated Jun 30, 6:37 AM EDT

Headline accuracy follows the active evaluation artifact.

Backtest windowOct '25 – Jun '26

Through Jun 13, 2026

Headline and rolling chart read from reports/backtest_unified_playoff_gbm.csv.

Market reportstale

Generated Jun 30, 6:37 AM EDT

Latest slate: 2026-06-30 · 10 days old

Built to read like an evaluation report, not a tout sheet.

Methodology
01

Walk-forward backtesting across the full evaluation window, never a random split.

02

Pregame-safe features only, with rolling windows excluding the current game.

03

Closing-line comparisons so performance is framed against a real market baseline.

Rolling accuracy

20-game rolling accuracy from the same postseason-aware artifact as the headline metric.

Postseason-aware GBMUpdated through Jun 13, 2026

Regular-season model comparison

1,214 games · Oct '25 – Apr '26 · 11 days old

Logistic66.8%
Log loss 0.605Brier 0.210
LightGBM64.3%
Log loss 0.630Brier 0.219
Ensemble66.3%
Log loss 0.622Brier 0.214

Props error snapshot

Pts4.74MAE
Reb1.95MAE
Ast1.43MAE

Recent predictions

Saved slate calls. Results settle after final scores land in the processed game feed.

20 rowsOct '25 – Jun '26
DateMatchupHome win %PickActualResult
Jun 13, 2026NYK@SAS63%SASNYKMiss
Jun 10, 2026SAS@NYK84%NYKNYKCorrect
Jun 8, 2026SAS@NYK79%NYKSASMiss
Jun 5, 2026NYK@SAS58%SASNYKMiss
Jun 3, 2026NYK@SAS50%NYKNYKCorrect
May 30, 2026SAS@OKC60%OKCSASMiss
May 28, 2026OKC@SAS55%SASSASCorrect
May 26, 2026SAS@OKC74%OKCOKCCorrect
May 25, 2026NYK@CLE47%NYKNYKCorrect
May 24, 2026OKC@SAS63%SASSASCorrect
May 23, 2026NYK@CLE50%CLENYKMiss
May 22, 2026OKC@SAS50%OKCOKCCorrect
May 21, 2026CLE@NYK90%NYKNYKCorrect
May 20, 2026SAS@OKC79%OKCOKCCorrect
May 19, 2026CLE@NYK84%NYKNYKCorrect
May 18, 2026SAS@OKC70%OKCSASMiss
May 17, 2026CLE@DET78%DETCLEMiss
May 15, 2026DET@CLE74%CLEDETMiss
May 15, 2026SAS@MIN44%SASSASCorrect
May 13, 2026CLE@DET75%DETCLEMiss

Surfaces