Apr 1, 2026regularTier-one edge
SAC
Sacramento Kings
VS@
TOR
Toronto Raptors
SAC 19%81% TOR
Model pick
TOR (81% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+13.3%)
Narrative
This is one of the stronger calls on the slate — Toronto at 81% at home. Toronto has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Toronto carries a stronger Elo rating (267), reflecting a higher overall caliber of play. Toronto holds a defensive edge, allowing -8.5 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window. Toronto Raptors is down 3 rotation players, including Brandon Ingram, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 69%, while sacramento Kings is down 8 rotation players, including Zach LaVine, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 57%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 12.97
+13.3%
elo diff
Value: 267.09
+11.9%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -8.50
+2.0%
Game info
DateApr 1, 2026
MatchupSAC @ TOR
Model pickTOR
Confidence81%
Home win prob81%
Game ID0022501108
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 1, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:44 PM
Games in slate9