Apr 2, 2026regular
NOP
New Orleans Pelicans
VS@
POR
Portland Trail Blazers
NOP 32%68% POR
Model pick
POR (68% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+16.2%)
Narrative
The model favors Portland at home with a 68% win probability. Portland has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Portland holds a defensive edge, allowing -10.6 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window. Portland Trail Blazers is down 3 rotation players, including Damian Lillard, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 70%, while new Orleans Pelicans is down 2 rotation players, including Trey Murphy III, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 85%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 5.94
+16.2%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -10.60
+4.2%
elo diff
Value: 100.96
-3.5%
Game info
DateApr 2, 2026
MatchupNOP @ POR
Model pickPOR
Confidence68%
Home win prob68%
Game ID0022501118
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 2, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:45 PM
Games in slate6