Apr 3, 2026regularTier-one edge
IND
Indiana Pacers
VS@
CHA
Charlotte Hornets
IND 19%81% CHA
Model pick
CHA (81% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+16.2%)
Narrative
This is one of the stronger calls on the slate — Charlotte at 81% at home. Charlotte has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Charlotte carries a stronger Elo rating (360), reflecting a higher overall caliber of play. Charlotte has been the stingier side recently, giving up -20.2 fewer PPG head-to-head. Charlotte Hornets is down 3 rotation players, including Moussa Diabaté, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 86%, while indiana Pacers is down 7 rotation players, including Pascal Siakam, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 51%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 20.69
+16.2%
elo diff
Value: 360.16
+8.4%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -20.20
+2.6%
Game info
DateApr 3, 2026
MatchupIND @ CHA
Model pickCHA
Confidence81%
Home win prob81%
Game ID0022501120
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 3, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:45 PM
Games in slate9