Apr 3, 2026regularTier-one edge
UTA
Utah Jazz
VS@
HOU
Houston Rockets
UTA 18%82% HOU
Model pick
HOU (82% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+13.0%)
Narrative
The model is fairly confident in Houston, giving them a 82% chance to win at home. Houston has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). By Elo (419), Houston is the more proven team heading into this matchup. Houston has been the stingier side recently, giving up -18.1 fewer PPG head-to-head. Houston Rockets is down 2 rotation players, including Fred VanVleet, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 92%, while utah Jazz is down 8 rotation players, including Lauri Markkanen, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 47%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 10.74
+13.0%
elo diff
Value: 418.67
+10.3%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -18.10
+2.4%
Game info
DateApr 3, 2026
MatchupUTA @ HOU
Model pickHOU
Confidence82%
Home win prob82%
Game ID0022501124
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 3, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:45 PM
Games in slate9