Skip to content
Apr 3, 2026regularTier-one edge
UTA logo
UTA
Utah Jazz
VS@
HOU logo
HOU
Houston Rockets
UTA 18%82% HOU
HOU logo
Model pick
HOU (82% confidence)

Primary read

Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+13.0%)

Narrative

The model is fairly confident in Houston, giving them a 82% chance to win at home. Houston has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). By Elo (419), Houston is the more proven team heading into this matchup. Houston has been the stingier side recently, giving up -18.1 fewer PPG head-to-head. Houston Rockets is down 2 rotation players, including Fred VanVleet, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 92%, while utah Jazz is down 8 rotation players, including Lauri Markkanen, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 47%.

Key factors

Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 10.74
+13.0%
elo diff
Value: 418.67
+10.3%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -18.10
+2.4%

Game info

DateApr 3, 2026
MatchupUTA @ HOU
Model pickHOU
Confidence82%
Home win prob82%
Game ID0022501124

Slate metadata

Slate dateApr 3, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:45 PM
Games in slate9