Primary read

elo diff (+13.4%)

Narrative

Miami looks solid at home — the model gives them a 72% chance to take this one. By Elo (301), Miami is the more proven team heading into this matchup. Miami has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Washington holds a defensive edge, allowing 0.7 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window. Miami Heat is down 2 rotation players, including Tyler Herro, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 70%, while washington Wizards is down 5 rotation players, including Trae Young, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 66%.

Key factors

Game info

Slate metadata