Apr 5, 2026regularTier-one edge
PHX
Phoenix Suns
VS@
CHI
Chicago Bulls
PHX 79%21% CHI
Model pick
PHX (79% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (-11.4%)
Narrative
The model is fairly confident in Phoenix, giving them a 79% chance to win on the road. Phoenix has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). By Elo (-217), Phoenix is the more proven team heading into this matchup. Phoenix holds a defensive edge, allowing 18.4 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window. Chicago Bulls is down 6 rotation players, including Matas Buzelis, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 52%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: -10.01
-11.4%
elo diff
Value: -217.19
-3.8%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: 18.40
-1.9%
Game info
DateApr 5, 2026
MatchupPHX @ CHI
Model pickPHX
Confidence79%
Home win prob21%
Game ID0022501134
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 5, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:45 PM
Games in slate11