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Apr 5, 2026regularTier-one edge
IND logo
IND
Indiana Pacers
VS@
CLE logo
CLE
Cleveland Cavaliers
IND 20%80% CLE
CLE logo
Model pick
CLE (80% confidence)

Primary read

Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+12.8%)

Narrative

This is one of the stronger calls on the slate — Cleveland at 80% at home. Cleveland has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Cleveland carries a stronger Elo rating (331), reflecting a higher overall caliber of play. Cleveland holds a defensive edge, allowing -8.9 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window. Cleveland Cavaliers is down 5 rotation players, including Evan Mobley, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 55%, while indiana Pacers is missing Pascal Siakam, its top scorer, and 7 other rotation players, which materially cuts into its scoring depth.

Key factors

Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 12.26
+12.8%
elo diff
Value: 331.13
+11.4%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -8.90
+3.1%

Game info

DateApr 5, 2026
MatchupIND @ CLE
Model pickCLE
Confidence80%
Home win prob80%
Game ID0022501136

Slate metadata

Slate dateApr 5, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:45 PM
Games in slate11