Apr 5, 2026regular
ORL
Orlando Magic
VS@
NOP
New Orleans Pelicans
ORL 54%46% NOP
Model pick
ORL (54% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+4.6%)
Narrative
Neither team has a clear edge here. The model puts New Orleans's home win probability at 46%. New Orleans has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). New Orleans has been the stingier side recently, giving up -6.8 fewer PPG head-to-head. New Orleans Pelicans is down 4 rotation players, including Trey Murphy III, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 62%, while orlando Magic is down 2 rotation players, including Anthony Black, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 82%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 1.28
+4.6%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -6.80
+4.4%
elo diff
Value: -91.73
-4.1%
Game info
DateApr 5, 2026
MatchupORL @ NOP
Model pickORL
Confidence54%
Home win prob46%
Game ID0022501138
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 5, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:45 PM
Games in slate11