Apr 5, 2026regularTier-one edge
UTA
Utah Jazz
VS@
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
UTA 14%86% OKC
Model pick
OKC (86% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+10.8%)
Narrative
Oklahoma City is a heavy favorite at home at 86%. The model sees a significant gap between these two teams. Oklahoma City has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Oklahoma City carries a stronger Elo rating (614), reflecting a higher overall caliber of play. Oklahoma City holds a defensive edge, allowing -25.1 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window. Utah Jazz is down 8 rotation players, including Lauri Markkanen, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 47%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 19.72
+10.8%
elo diff
Value: 613.84
+9.2%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -25.10
+2.2%
Game info
DateApr 5, 2026
MatchupUTA @ OKC
Model pickOKC
Confidence86%
Home win prob86%
Game ID0022501139
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 5, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:45 PM
Games in slate11