Apr 7, 2026regular
MIA
Miami Heat
VS@
TOR
Toronto Raptors
MIA 47%53% TOR
Model pick
TOR (53% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+11.9%)
Narrative
This is essentially a coin-flip — the model gives Toronto a 53% chance at home. Toronto has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Miami has been outscoring opponents by -6.8 PPG — a meaningful recent edge.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 1.79
+11.9%
Points scored diff (20g)
Value: -6.75
-4.0%
elo diff
Value: 2.50
-4.0%
Game info
DateApr 7, 2026
MatchupMIA @ TOR
Model pickTOR
Confidence53%
Home win prob53%
Game ID0022501151
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 7, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:46 PM
Games in slate10