Apr 7, 2026regular
SAC
Sacramento Kings
VS@
GSW
Golden State Warriors
SAC 46%54% GSW
Model pick
GSW (54% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+6.1%)
Narrative
Neither team has a clear edge here. The model puts Golden State's home win probability at 54%. Golden State has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Golden State has been the stingier side recently, giving up -5.1 fewer PPG head-to-head. Golden State Warriors is down 5 rotation players, including Stephen Curry, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 55%, while sacramento Kings is down 8 rotation players, including DeMar DeRozan, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 53%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 1.41
+6.1%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -5.10
+4.6%
Home rebounds (10g)
Value: 39.80
-2.3%
Game info
DateApr 7, 2026
MatchupSAC @ GSW
Model pickGSW
Confidence54%
Home win prob54%
Game ID0022501154
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 7, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:46 PM
Games in slate10