Apr 8, 2026regularTier-one edge
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
VS@
PHX
Phoenix Suns
DAL 19%81% PHX
Model pick
PHX (81% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+13.8%)
Narrative
This is one of the stronger calls on the slate — Phoenix at 81% at home. Phoenix has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Phoenix carries a stronger Elo rating (182), reflecting a higher overall caliber of play. Phoenix has been the stingier side recently, giving up -15.7 fewer PPG head-to-head. Phoenix Suns is down 2 rotation players, including Grayson Allen, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 87%, while dallas Mavericks is down 7 rotation players, including Kyrie Irving, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 43%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 13.50
+13.8%
elo diff
Value: 181.56
+6.7%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -15.70
+2.7%
Game info
DateApr 8, 2026
MatchupDAL @ PHX
Model pickPHX
Confidence81%
Home win prob81%
Game ID0022501164
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 8, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:46 PM
Games in slate7