Apr 9, 2026regular
MIA
Miami Heat
VS@
TOR
Toronto Raptors
MIA 43%57% TOR
Model pick
TOR (57% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+13.6%)
Narrative
The model leans toward Toronto (57%) at home, but it is a competitive matchup. Toronto has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). By Elo (47), Miami is the more proven team heading into this matchup.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 4.00
+13.6%
elo diff
Value: 47.42
-4.1%
Points scored diff (20g)
Value: -4.95
-4.0%
Game info
DateApr 9, 2026
MatchupMIA @ TOR
Model pickTOR
Confidence57%
Home win prob57%
Game ID0022501165
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 9, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:46 PM
Games in slate6