Apr 10, 2026regularTier-one edge
ORL
Orlando Magic
VS@
CHI
Chicago Bulls
ORL 72%28% CHI
Model pick
ORL (72% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (-7.6%)
Narrative
The model favors Orlando on the road with a 72% win probability. Orlando has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Orlando's Elo rating of -245 marks them as the stronger squad on paper. Orlando has been the stingier side recently, giving up 5.0 fewer PPG head-to-head. Chicago Bulls is down 7 rotation players, including Collin Sexton, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 51%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: -3.18
-7.6%
elo diff
Value: -244.93
-4.6%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: 5.00
-2.9%
Game info
DateApr 10, 2026
MatchupORL @ CHI
Model pickORL
Confidence72%
Home win prob28%
Game ID0022501177
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 10, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:46 PM
Games in slate15