Apr 10, 2026regularTier-one edge
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
VS@
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
DAL 15%85% SAS
Model pick
SAS (85% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+10.2%)
Narrative
This is one of the stronger calls on the slate — San Antonio at 85% at home. San Antonio has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). By Elo (543), San Antonio is the more proven team heading into this matchup. San Antonio holds a defensive edge, allowing -16.3 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window. Dallas Mavericks is down 6 rotation players, including Kyrie Irving, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 55%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 24.78
+10.2%
elo diff
Value: 543.36
+6.9%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -16.30
+2.7%
Game info
DateApr 10, 2026
MatchupDAL @ SAS
Model pickSAS
Confidence85%
Home win prob85%
Game ID0022501180
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 10, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:46 PM
Games in slate15