Apr 12, 2026regularTier-one edge
BKN
Brooklyn Nets
VS@
TOR
Toronto Raptors
BKN 23%77% TOR
Model pick
TOR (77% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+13.0%)
Narrative
The model is fairly confident in Toronto, giving them a 77% chance to win at home. Toronto has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). By Elo (335), Toronto is the more proven team heading into this matchup. Brooklyn holds a rebounding edge at 37.4 RPG, limiting second-chance points for opponents. Brooklyn Nets is missing Michael Porter Jr., its top scorer, and 9 other rotation players, which materially cuts into its scoring depth.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 16.16
+13.0%
elo diff
Value: 334.71
+11.3%
Away rebounds (20g)
Value: 37.35
-4.2%
Game info
DateApr 12, 2026
MatchupBKN @ TOR
Model pickTOR
Confidence77%
Home win prob77%
Game ID0022501192
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 12, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:47 PM
Games in slate15