Apr 12, 2026regular
CHI
Chicago Bulls
VS@
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
CHI 59%41% DAL
Model pick
CHI (59% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (-9.1%)
Narrative
Chicago has a slight edge on the road at 59%, though Dallas is within striking distance. Chicago has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Chicago's Elo rating of -7 marks them as the stronger squad on paper. Dallas Mavericks is down 7 rotation players, including Kyrie Irving, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 49%, while chicago Bulls is down 8 rotation players, including Collin Sexton, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 45%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: -2.55
-9.1%
elo diff
Value: -6.72
-3.0%
Turnovers diff (5g)
Value: -7.20
+2.2%
Game info
DateApr 12, 2026
MatchupCHI @ DAL
Model pickCHI
Confidence59%
Home win prob41%
Game ID0022501193
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 12, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:47 PM
Games in slate15