May 1, 2026playoffTier-one edge
CLE
Cleveland Cavaliers
VS@
TOR
Toronto Raptors
CLE 29%71% TOR
Model pick
TOR (71% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+9.4%)
Narrative
At 71%, Toronto is a comfortable favorite at home in this matchup. Toronto has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Toronto has been the stingier side recently, giving up -5.2 fewer PPG head-to-head. Cleveland's Elo rating of 1615 marks them as the stronger squad on paper. Toronto Raptors is down 2 rotation players, including Brandon Ingram, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 76%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 2.98
+9.4%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -5.20
+3.6%
away elo
Value: 1615.31
-1.7%
Game info
DateMay 1, 2026
MatchupCLE @ TOR
Model pickTOR
Confidence71%
Home win prob71%
Game ID0042500136
Slate metadata
Slate dateMay 1, 2026
GeneratedMay 1, 9:33 PM
Games in slate4