Primary read

Points allowed diff (10g) (-3.8%)

Narrative

The model gives Cleveland a 59% edge at home — not a blowout call, but a clear lean. Toronto has been the stingier side recently, giving up 6.1 fewer PPG head-to-head. Toronto holds a rebounding edge at 40.5 RPG, limiting second-chance points for opponents. Injury news has shifted the line toward Cleveland (+3% swing): CLE: 0 rotation players out (pts_share: 1.00). Toronto Raptors is down 2 rotation players, including Brandon Ingram, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 77%.

Key factors

Game info

Slate metadata