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Apr 22, 2026playoffTier-one edge
PHX logo
PHX
Phoenix Suns
VS@
OKC logo
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
PHX 20%80% OKC
OKC logo
Model pick
OKC (80% confidence)

Primary read

Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+10.2%)

Narrative

Oklahoma City is a heavy favorite at home at 80%. The model sees a significant gap between these two teams. Oklahoma City has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). By Elo (201), Oklahoma City is the more proven team heading into this matchup. Oklahoma City holds a defensive edge, allowing -3.8 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window.

Key factors

Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 13.41
+10.2%
elo diff
Value: 201.16
+4.5%
home elo
Value: 1737.95
+2.0%

Game info

DateApr 22, 2026
MatchupPHX @ OKC
Model pickOKC
Confidence80%
Home win prob80%
Game ID0042500142

Slate metadata

Slate dateApr 22, 2026
GeneratedApr 22, 9:34 PM
Games in slate2