Apr 22, 2026playoffTier-one edge
PHX
Phoenix Suns
VS@
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
PHX 20%80% OKC
Model pick
OKC (80% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+10.2%)
Narrative
Oklahoma City is a heavy favorite at home at 80%. The model sees a significant gap between these two teams. Oklahoma City has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). By Elo (201), Oklahoma City is the more proven team heading into this matchup. Oklahoma City holds a defensive edge, allowing -3.8 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 13.41
+10.2%
elo diff
Value: 201.16
+4.5%
home elo
Value: 1737.95
+2.0%
Game info
DateApr 22, 2026
MatchupPHX @ OKC
Model pickOKC
Confidence80%
Home win prob80%
Game ID0042500142
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 22, 2026
GeneratedApr 22, 9:34 PM
Games in slate2