May 1, 2026playoffTier-one edge
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
VS@
PHX
Phoenix Suns
OKC 75%25% PHX
Model pick
OKC (75% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (-7.5%)
Narrative
Oklahoma City looks solid on the road — the model gives them a 75% chance to take this one. Oklahoma City has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Oklahoma City's Elo rating of -274 marks them as the stronger squad on paper. Oklahoma City owns a +-12.2 PPG scoring margin over recent matchup history.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: -15.99
-7.5%
elo diff
Value: -274.04
-4.9%
Home defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) (5g)
Value: 121.11
-4.2%
Game info
DateMay 1, 2026
MatchupOKC @ PHX
Model pickOKC
Confidence75%
Home win prob25%
Game ID0042500146
Slate metadata
Slate dateMay 1, 2026
GeneratedMay 1, 9:33 PM
Games in slate4