May 3, 2026playoffTier-one edge
PHX
Phoenix Suns
VS@
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
PHX 12%88% OKC
Model pick
OKC (88% confidence)
Primary read
elo diff (+10.0%)
Narrative
This is one of the stronger calls on the slate — Oklahoma City at 88% at home. Oklahoma City carries a stronger Elo rating (274), reflecting a higher overall caliber of play. Oklahoma City has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Phoenix avoids the fatigue factor — 840 miles of travel gives them fresher legs.
Key factors
elo diff
Value: 274.04
+10.0%
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 15.99
+5.8%
Home travel distance
Value: 840.14
-1.8%
Game info
DateMay 3, 2026
MatchupPHX @ OKC
Model pickOKC
Confidence88%
Home win prob88%
Game ID0042500147
Slate metadata
Slate dateMay 3, 2026
GeneratedMay 3, 9:33 PM
Games in slate4