Apr 30, 2026playoff
DEN
Denver Nuggets
VS@
MIN
Minnesota Timberwolves
DEN 44%56% MIN
Model pick
MIN (56% confidence)
Primary read
Away three-point percentage (5g) (+4.5%)
Narrative
Minnesota has a slight edge at home at 56%, though Denver is within striking distance. Minnesota is hitting 29.7% from deep in recent games, giving them an added dimension. Denver holds a defensive edge, allowing -0.9 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window. Minnesota Timberwolves is missing Anthony Edwards, its top scorer, and 1 other rotation player, which materially cuts into its scoring depth.
Key factors
Away three-point percentage (5g)
Value: 0.30
+4.5%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -0.90
-4.0%
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: -3.45
-2.6%
Game info
DateApr 30, 2026
MatchupDEN @ MIN
Model pickMIN
Confidence56%
Home win prob56%
Game ID0042500166
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 30, 2026
GeneratedApr 30, 9:33 PM
Games in slate4