May 12, 2026playoffTier-one edge
MIN
Minnesota Timberwolves
VS@
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
MIN 22%78% SAS
Model pick
SAS (78% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+9.2%)
Narrative
This is one of the stronger calls on the slate — San Antonio at 78% at home. San Antonio has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). San Antonio has been the stingier side recently, giving up -5.5 fewer PPG head-to-head. Minnesota has less travel wear heading in, with 1111 miles on the road recently.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 15.43
+9.2%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -5.50
+3.6%
Home travel distance
Value: 1110.88
-2.4%
Game info
DateMay 12, 2026
MatchupMIN @ SAS
Model pickSAS
Confidence78%
Home win prob78%
Game ID0042500235
Slate metadata
Slate dateMay 12, 2026
GeneratedMay 12, 9:34 PM
Games in slate1