May 20, 2026playoffTier-one edge
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
VS@
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
SAS 21%79% OKC
Model pick
OKC (79% confidence)
Primary read
Rebounds diff (5g) (+3.7%)
Narrative
This is one of the stronger calls on the slate — Oklahoma City at 79% at home. Oklahoma City holds a rebounding edge at -13.4 RPG, limiting second-chance points for opponents. Oklahoma City has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). San Antonio holds a defensive edge, allowing 5.6 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window.
Key factors
Rebounds diff (5g)
Value: -13.40
+3.7%
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 0.83
+3.6%
Home true shooting percentage (5g)
Value: 0.62
+1.7%
Game info
DateMay 20, 2026
MatchupSAS @ OKC
Model pickOKC
Confidence79%
Home win prob79%
Game ID0042500312
Slate metadata
Slate dateMay 20, 2026
GeneratedMay 20, 9:33 PM
Games in slate1