May 22, 2026playoff
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
VS@
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
OKC 50%50% SAS
Model pick
OKC (50% confidence)
Primary read
away elo (-4.8%)
Narrative
Neither team has a clear edge here. The model puts San Antonio's home win probability at 50%. Oklahoma City's Elo rating of 1831 marks them as the stronger squad on paper. Oklahoma City has an edge in away offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) (20g).
Key factors
away elo
Value: 1830.86
-4.8%
Away offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) (20g)
Value: 120.25
-4.1%
Rebounds diff (10g)
Value: 7.90
-2.8%
Game info
DateMay 22, 2026
MatchupOKC @ SAS
Model pickOKC
Confidence50%
Home win prob50%
Game ID0042500313
Slate metadata
Slate dateMay 22, 2026
GeneratedMay 22, 9:33 PM
Games in slate1