May 24, 2026playoff
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
VS@
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
OKC 37%63% SAS
Model pick
SAS (63% confidence)
Primary read
away elo (-3.9%)
Narrative
The model gives San Antonio a 63% edge at home — not a blowout call, but a clear lean. Oklahoma City's Elo rating of 1870 marks them as the stronger squad on paper. Oklahoma City holds a rebounding edge at 8.9 RPG, limiting second-chance points for opponents. Injury news has shifted the line toward San Antonio (+3% swing): SAS: 0 rotation players out (pts_share: 1.00).
Key factors
away elo
Value: 1870.27
-3.9%
Rebounds diff (10g)
Value: 8.90
-3.5%
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: -3.28
-2.4%
Game info
DateMay 24, 2026
MatchupOKC @ SAS
Model pickSAS
Confidence63%
Home win prob63%
Game ID0042500314
Slate metadata
Slate dateMay 24, 2026
GeneratedMay 24, 9:33 PM
Games in slate1