May 26, 2026playoffTier-one edge
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
VS@
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
SAS 26%74% OKC
Model pick
OKC (74% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+4.4%)
Narrative
Oklahoma City looks solid at home — the model gives them a 74% chance to take this one. Oklahoma City has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Oklahoma City holds a rebounding edge at -10.4 RPG, limiting second-chance points for opponents. San Antonio holds a defensive edge, allowing 2.3 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 0.84
+4.4%
Rebounds diff (5g)
Value: -10.40
+3.9%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: 2.30
-2.7%
Game info
DateMay 26, 2026
MatchupSAS @ OKC
Model pickOKC
Confidence74%
Home win prob74%
Game ID0042500315
Slate metadata
Slate dateMay 26, 2026
GeneratedMay 26, 9:33 PM
Games in slate1