May 28, 2026playoff
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
VS@
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
OKC 45%55% SAS
Model pick
SAS (55% confidence)
Primary read
Points allowed diff (10g) (-6.0%)
Narrative
This is essentially a coin-flip — the model gives San Antonio a 55% chance at home. Oklahoma City holds a defensive edge, allowing -0.5 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window. Oklahoma City has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g).
Key factors
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -0.50
-6.0%
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: -1.66
-2.0%
Home net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) (10g)
Value: 10.59
+1.8%
Game info
DateMay 28, 2026
MatchupOKC @ SAS
Model pickSAS
Confidence55%
Home win prob55%
Game ID0042500316
Slate metadata
Slate dateMay 28, 2026
GeneratedMay 28, 9:33 PM
Games in slate1