Apr 14, 2026playinTier-one edge
MIA
Miami Heat
VS@
CHA
Charlotte Hornets
MIA 26%74% CHA
Model pick
CHA (74% confidence)
Primary read
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+14.9%)
Narrative
Charlotte looks solid at home — the model gives them a 74% chance to take this one. Charlotte has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Charlotte carries a stronger Elo rating (154), reflecting a higher overall caliber of play. Miami owns a +-8.0 PPG scoring margin over recent matchup history. Miami Heat is down 2 rotation players, including Nikola Jović, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 91%.
Key factors
Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 6.45
+14.9%
elo diff
Value: 153.51
+8.4%
Points scored diff (20g)
Value: -8.00
-3.0%
Game info
DateApr 14, 2026
MatchupMIA @ CHA
Model pickCHA
Confidence74%
Home win prob74%
Game ID0052500111
Slate metadata
Slate dateApr 14, 2026
GeneratedApr 16, 8:47 PM
Games in slate2