Skip to content
Apr 17, 2026playinTier-one edge
GSW logo
GSW
Golden State Warriors
VS@
PHX logo
PHX
Phoenix Suns
GSW 21%79% PHX
PHX logo
Model pick
PHX (79% confidence)

Primary read

Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g) (+14.6%)

Narrative

This is one of the stronger calls on the slate — Phoenix at 79% at home. Phoenix has an edge in net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g). Phoenix carries a stronger Elo rating (157), reflecting a higher overall caliber of play. Phoenix holds a defensive edge, allowing -7.8 fewer PPG than their opponent in this window. Golden State Warriors is down 3 rotation players, including Jimmy Butler III, which lowers its expected scoring availability to 75%.

Key factors

Net rating (offensive minus defensive rating) diff (20g)
Value: 8.18
+14.6%
elo diff
Value: 156.82
+7.9%
Points allowed diff (10g)
Value: -7.80
+2.9%

Game info

DateApr 17, 2026
MatchupGSW @ PHX
Model pickPHX
Confidence79%
Home win prob79%
Game ID0052500211

Slate metadata

Slate dateApr 17, 2026
GeneratedApr 17, 9:33 PM
Games in slate2